Bogen Capital Model

1. Breadth

2. Conviction size

3. Momentum

4. Insider modifier (±15%)

Site Update

April 2026

The past few months have been the most active stretch of development since Bogen Capital launched. A lot has changed under the hood and on the surface — here's a full rundown.

Congress Trading Tracker — Members of Congress are required by the STOCK Act to disclose personal stock trades within 45 days of execution. That data is public, but like 13F filings, it's buried in formats nobody wants to parse. I've built a full tracker that pulls congressional disclosures, normalizes them, and applies the same conviction-scoring logic used for institutional managers. Whether you think congressional trading is meaningful signal or just noise, the data is there to judge for yourself.

8 New Investors — The watchlist has grown from 34 to 42 tracked institutional managers. The new additions were chosen specifically to improve coverage in areas where the model had gaps — small and mid-cap names, international equities, and a few managers with concentrated, high-conviction styles that differ from the larger funds already tracked. More managers means more data points, and more data points means a harder signal to fake.

Market Trader Minigame — This one started as a weekend distraction. It's a 20-second trading game where you start with $1,000 and try to time a volatile price chart — buy in, ride it, sell before time runs out or you bust. The price model uses real mean-reverting volatility math, so it behaves like something you'd actually see in a tick chart. It's not financial advice. It is, I think, a decent illustration of how quickly even a "simple" chart becomes impossible to predict with confidence. The leaderboard is humbling.

More is coming. The data pipeline improves every week, and there are a few features in progress that I'm not ready to talk about yet. Check back.

Deep Dive

April 2025

When you aggregate 13F filings across 42 institutional managers, one thing becomes striking fast: genuine consensus is rare. Most holdings are deeply idiosyncratic. A position that one fund has built into a top-five holding might not appear in a single other portfolio on the list. That's not a flaw — it's how great investors operate. They find edges that no one else sees yet.

But that's also what makes cross-manager agreement so interesting when it does appear.

When you find a stock held by six, eight, ten different managers simultaneously — managers with different styles, different time horizons, different sector focuses — and each one has been adding, not trimming, over the past two or three quarters, that's a different kind of signal. It suggests the thesis isn't obscure or fragile. It's something that smart people with different frameworks have independently concluded is worth owning.

The conviction model on this site is built to surface exactly that. Breadth of ownership, portfolio weight, and directional momentum all feed into the score. Investors with longer and stronger track records are weighted more heavily — Buffett's position in something carries more informational weight than a fund with a two-year history.

What I find most interesting when I run the numbers: the stocks at the top of the conviction ranking are almost never the ones dominating financial media. They're rarely the flashy names getting written up everywhere. They tend to be businesses with durable margins, strong free cash flow, and management teams that have earned a long leash. Not exciting — which might be exactly the point.

That's not a hot tip. It's pattern recognition at scale, applied consistently. Which is what this whole project is built to do.

Origin Story

March 2025

This project started with a simple frustration: the best investors in the world are legally required to disclose what they're buying — yet that information is buried inside dense SEC filings that most people never read.

Every quarter, institutional managers overseeing more than $100 million file a 13F with the SEC. It lists every US equity position they hold — the stock, the size, the change from last quarter. It's all public. It's all free. And for most people, it's completely inaccessible. The raw filings are XML dumps. The aggregated versions, when you can find them, are usually locked behind paywalls or buried under ads.

I wanted to fix that. So I built a system that ingests 13F filings from 42 of the world's top institutional managers, scores each position by conviction level, and surfaces the clearest signals in one clean place.

The conviction scoring was the part I found most interesting to build. It's not enough to know that Buffett holds Apple — everyone knows that. What matters is how many managers hold a position, how large it is relative to their portfolio, and whether they've been actively adding or trimming. A stock that five sharp managers have all been quietly building for three straight quarters tells a different story than one that showed up in a single filing.

Bogen Capital isn't a fund. There's no money managed here, no fee, no subscription. It's a lens — one that lets any curious person look over the shoulder of Buffett, Ackman, Druckenmiller, Klarman, and dozens of others, and ask the only question that matters: what do they actually believe in enough to put real money on?

I built it because I wanted it to exist. Now it does.