About Bogen Capital

Follow the smart money — for free, without the noise.

Bogen Capital reads every quarter's SEC 13F filings from 50 of the world's most respected institutional investors, layers in Congress trades and insider Form 4s, and ranks every stock by cross-source conviction. Everything is deterministic. Everything traces back to a public filing. No AI, no subscription, no ads.

50
Investors tracked
7,111
Stocks in the corpus
$2.4T
Assets under coverage
12/16
Quarters beating S&P 500
01

How the model works

deterministic · traceable · no ML
Step 1 · Read the filings

We ingest every quarter's public disclosures.

SEC 13F filings from 50 tracked managers, STOCK-Act congressional trades, and Form 4 insider transactions. All fetched from primary sources, all cached, all timestamped.

SEC EDGAR · Congress · Form 4
Step 2 · Score each stock

Cross-source conviction, one 0–100 number.

Weighted fund breadth is the base. Congress buying and insider (Form 4) buying add on top; selling subtracts. The same formula runs on every stock — model holding or not.

fund base · Congress + insider corroboration
Step 3 · Rank & show the top 10

The model portfolio is just the leaderboard.

Highest-scoring stocks form the model, capped at 3 per sector for diversification. Backtested across 16 quarters — beat the S&P 12 times, +17.5% cumulative alpha.

Sector-diversified · rebalanced quarterly
The confidence formula
confidence = fund_base  +  congress_bonus  +  insider_bonus      (clamped 0–100)

fund_base       = 75 · min(1, weighted_investor_breadth / 20)    ± small tilt for new / trimming
congress_bonus  = +15 when members of Congress are buying (scaled), −8 if net selling,
                   0 when there are NO congressional trades  (absence is not a penalty)
insider_bonus   = +10 bullish · −12 bearish · 0 balanced · 0 when we have no Form 4 data

Broad fund ownership gets a stock to High (75). Reaching Strong (85+) takes Congress or insider buying on top of that. Crucially, a signal we don't have — no congressional trades, or no Form 4 coverage — contributes nothing; it's never imputed as a neutral half-score. One formula, one number per stock, computed once and reused on every surface.

02

Where the data comes from

100% public sources
Primary

13F filings

Quarterly portfolio disclosures. Required of every institutional manager above $100M in AUM. Filed with the SEC up to 45 days after quarter-end.

Source: SEC EDGAR
Cross-signal

Congress trades

Members of the US House and Senate must disclose personal trades within 45 days per the STOCK Act. Data is normalized and scored alongside the fund signal.

Source: US House Clerk & Senate financial disclosures
Cross-signal

Insider Form 4s

Company officers, directors, and 10%+ shareholders must file within 2 business days of any trade. CEO/CFO buys are weighted heaviest; routine sales are dampened.

Known limitation: 13F filings arrive up to 45 days after quarter-end. By the time you see a position here, the manager may already have exited. The model is a lens on public disclosure — not a real-time position tracker. Treat it accordingly.

03

Who we track

50 managers · weighted by track record

Value, growth, quant, activist, and global-equity managers. Each is given a trust weight (0.8×–2.0×) based on long-term track record and conviction style — Buffett's 10-year hold carries more weight than a quant fund's high-turnover position.

Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) 2.0× Baupost Group (Klarman) 1.8× Pershing Square (Ackman) 1.6× Duquesne Family Office (Druckenmiller) 1.6× Pabrai Investment Funds (Pabrai) 1.5× Akre Capital Management (Akre) 1.5× Himalaya Capital (Li Lu) 1.5× Viking Global Investors 1.5× Soros Fund Management (Soros) 1.5× Markel Group (Tom Gayner) 1.4× Tiger Global Management 1.4× Coatue Management 1.4× Lone Pine Capital (Mandel) 1.4× Baillie Gifford & Co 1.4× Scion Asset Mgmt (Burry) 1.4× Icahn Enterprises (Icahn) 1.4× Greenlight Capital (Einhorn) 1.3× Polen Capital Management 1.3× Whale Rock Capital 1.3× Durable Capital (Ellenbogen) 1.3× ARK Invest (Cathie Wood) 1.3× Altimeter Capital (Gerstner) 1.3× D1 Capital Partners (Sundheim) 1.3× Elliott Investment Mgmt 1.3× Starboard Value 1.3× Bridgewater Associates (Dalio) 1.3× Trian Fund Management (Peltz) 1.3× ValueAct Holdings 1.3× Dodge & Cox 1.2× Tweedy Browne 1.2× Southeastern Asset Mgmt (Longleaf) 1.2× Dragoneer Investment Group 1.2× Light Street Capital (Kacher) 1.2× Alkeon Capital Management 1.2× Maverick Capital (Ainslie) 1.2× Appaloosa Management (Tepper) 1.2× Third Point (Loeb) 1.2× Paulson & Co (Paulson) 1.2× Tudor Investment (Paul Tudor Jones) 1.2× Glenview Capital Mgmt (Robbins) 1.2× Davis Selected Advisers 1.1× GQG Partners 1.1× Gotham Asset Mgmt (Greenblatt) 1.1× Point72 (Steve Cohen) 1.1× JANA Partners Management 1.1× D.E. Shaw & Co 1.0× Citadel Advisors 1.0× AQR Capital Management 1.0× Renaissance Technologies 1.0× Millennium Management (Englander) 1.0×
04

From the desk

notes from behind the scenes

One conviction number, a basket builder, and a much sharper read

This was a big rebuild — the goal was to stop being a wall of data and start being something you can actually act on. Here's what changed.

One smart-money score, everywhere. Every stock now has a single 0–100 confidence number, computed once and shown identically on the dashboard, the explorer, individual stock pages, consensus and the digest. The math is honest about what it doesn't know: fund breadth gets a stock to "High," and it takes Congress or insider buying on top of that to reach "Strong." Crucially, a signal we don't have — no congressional trades, or no insider data for a stock — now contributes nothing, instead of being faked as a neutral half-score. If a bar says "No data," that's the truth, not a guess.

Build a basket. New tool that turns the model into a plan: pick the names you want, enter an amount, and choose to split it evenly or lean into the highest-conviction stocks. It shows the exact dollar allocation and an estimated share count, and you can copy the whole plan. It's a planning aid, not advice — but it's the difference between "here's what the smart money holds" and "here's what I could actually do about it."

Real logos and a cleaner read. Company logos now load properly (with a clean lettered fallback when one isn't available), the holdings list is ranked by the same confidence number it displays — no more three competing rankings in one row — and the ⌘K search shows a logo, ticker, name and a dot for model membership at a glance.

Behind the scenes. Subscribers can now choose exactly which updates they want, there's an operator dashboard to keep the data fresh, and the whole insider pipeline can widen its coverage from a handful of stocks to the entire universe. More on the data front is coming — especially around Congress.

Congress tracking, more investors, and a market minigame

The past few months have been the most active stretch of development since Bogen Capital launched. A lot has changed under the hood and on the surface — here's a rundown.

Congress trading tracker. Members of Congress are required by the STOCK Act to disclose personal stock trades within 45 days of execution. That data is public, but like 13F filings, it's buried in formats nobody wants to parse. I've built a full tracker that pulls congressional disclosures, normalizes them, and applies the same conviction-scoring logic used for institutional managers. Whether you think congressional trading is meaningful signal or just noise, the data is there to judge for yourself.

16 new investors. The watchlist has grown to 50 tracked institutional managers. The new additions were chosen to improve coverage in small & mid-cap names, international equities, and a few concentrated, high-conviction styles. More managers means more data points, and more data points means a harder signal to fake.

Market trader minigame. This started as a weekend distraction — a 20-second trading game with real mean-reverting volatility math, so it behaves like something you'd actually see in a tick chart. It's not financial advice. It is a decent illustration of how quickly even a "simple" chart becomes impossible to predict. The leaderboard is humbling.

The conviction behind the consensus

When you aggregate 13F filings across 50 institutional managers, one thing becomes striking fast: genuine consensus is rare. Most holdings are deeply idiosyncratic. A position one fund has built into a top-five holding might not appear in a single other portfolio on the list. That's not a flaw — it's how great investors operate.

But that's exactly what makes cross-manager agreement interesting when it does appear. A stock held by six, eight, ten different managers simultaneously — managers with different styles, different time horizons, different sector focuses — and each one adding over the past two or three quarters, is a different kind of signal. It suggests the thesis isn't obscure or fragile.

What I find most interesting when I run the numbers: the stocks at the top of the conviction ranking are almost never the ones dominating financial media. They tend to be businesses with durable margins, strong free cash flow, and management teams that have earned a long leash. Not exciting — which might be exactly the point.

Why I built Bogen Capital

This project started with a simple frustration: the best investors in the world are legally required to disclose what they're buying — yet that information is buried inside dense SEC filings most people never read.

Every quarter, managers overseeing $100M+ file a 13F with the SEC listing every US equity position. It's all public. It's all free. And for most people, it's completely inaccessible. Raw filings are XML dumps; aggregated versions, when you find them, are usually paywalled or buried under ads.

I wanted to fix that. So I built a system that ingests filings from 50 of the world's top managers, scores each position by conviction, and surfaces the clearest signals in one clean place.

Bogen Capital isn't a fund. There's no money managed, no fee, no subscription. It's a lens — one that lets any curious person look over the shoulder of Buffett, Ackman, Druckenmiller, Klarman, and dozens of others, and ask the only question that matters: what do they actually believe in enough to put real money on?

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