Bogen Capital Model

What this is

Bogen Capital is a conviction-tracking model built by Adrian Bogen. It monitors the public SEC filings of 22 of the world's most respected institutional investors and ranks stocks by how strongly those investors collectively believe in them.

A conviction score is calculated for every stock based on three signals: breadth (how many tracked investors hold it), size (what percentage of each investor's portfolio it represents), and momentum (recent buying vs selling activity). Insider trading data from SEC Form 4 filings is layered on top as a ±15% modifier.

Tracked investors (22)

Value, growth, quant, activist, and global equity managers — each weighted by track record and conviction style.

• Berkshire Hathaway (Buffett) (2.0×)
• Baupost Group (Klarman) (1.8×)
• Pershing Square (Ackman) (1.6×)
• Pabrai Investment Funds (Pabrai) (1.5×)
• Scion Asset Mgmt (Burry) (1.4×)
• Viking Global Investors (1.4×)
• Icahn Enterprises (Icahn) (1.4×)
• Bridgewater Associates (Dalio) (1.3×)
• Tiger Global Management (1.3×)
• Coatue Management (1.3×)
• Durable Capital (Ellenbogen) (1.3×)
• Elliott Investment Mgmt (1.3×)
• Starboard Value (1.3×)
• Greenlight Capital (Einhorn) (1.2×)
• Whale Rock Capital (1.2×)
• Maverick Capital (Ainslie) (1.2×)
• Appaloosa Management (Tepper) (1.2×)
• Third Point (Loeb) (1.1×)
• GQG Partners (1.1×)
• D.E. Shaw & Co (1.0×)
• Citadel Advisors (1.0×)
• AQR Capital Management (1.0×)

Data sources & methodology

13F filings: Quarterly portfolio disclosures from SEC EDGAR, required of all institutional managers with over $100 million in assets. This is the primary data source for the conviction score.

Form 4 insider trading: When company officers, directors, or major shareholders buy or sell stock, they must file within 2 business days. We use this as a secondary signal — insider buying reinforces conviction, while routine selling is dampened.

Stock prices: Current prices, daily changes, and historical charts sourced from Yahoo Finance.

Important limitation: 13F filings are disclosed up to 135 days after quarter-end. By the time you see this data, the investor may have already changed their position. The scoring algorithm is fully deterministic and traceable — no AI or machine learning is involved in portfolio decisions.